作 者 ：曹斌,林剑艺*,崔胜辉,唐立娜
期 刊 ：生态学报 2010年 30卷 12期 页码：3358~3367
Keywords:GHG emissions, reduction potentials, scenario analysis,
摘 要 ：城市是人类社会经济活动的中心，聚集了世界一半以上的人口。在城市发生的温室气体排放量占全球排放总量的75%左右，因此在城市这个尺度上研究温室气体减排意义重大。从城市这个尺度出发，以厦门市为实际研究案例，应用LEAP模型进行节能减排政策情景分析，定量分析评价城市节能减排潜力，并详细分析各种控制情景和各部门的节能减排贡献率。研究结果显示：在综合控制情景下，厦门能源消费总量年均增长率、万元地区生产总值能耗和温室气体排放总量年均增长率都有所下降；清洁燃料替代措施节能减排效果最好，工业部门节能减排潜力最大；优化能源使用结构蕴藏巨大减排潜力。
Abstract:As approximately 50% of the world′s populations are now living in cities, cities have become the centers of economic and cultural activities on Earth. Studies show that greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions from cities account for about 75% of the global total, and it is critical to reduce the GHG emissions at the city level. The computing principle based on the LEAP model for urban energy saving and emission reduction is introduced. A detailed model, known as LEAP-Xiamen, has been developed to estimate the reduction potential of energy consumption and GHG emissions in Xiamen, Fujian Province for the period of 2007-2020. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen City. The ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU) scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An ‘Integrated’(INT) scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess cumulative impacts of a series of available reduction measures, including clean energy substitution (CES), industrial energy conservation (IEC), combined heat and power generation (CHP), energy conservation in building (ECB), motor vehicle control (MVC) and the development of new energy and renewable energy (DNR). The modeling results show that different modes of economic development and policy implement have a significant impact on energy consumption and GHG emissions. With the rapid development of Xiamen′s economy in 2007-2020, the total energy demand and GHG emissions will maintain a relatively high growth. However, the policy measures can have significant effects on energy conservation and GHG mitigation. Firstly, in the BAU scenario, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption is 10.5% in Xiamen; The energy intensity (energy consumption per GRP) will decreases annually by 1.37%; and GHG emissions have an average annual increase of 10.08%. However, in the INT scenario, energy consumption, energy intensity and GHG emissions will increases by 9.13%, decreases by 2.59%, and rises by 694%, respectively. Secondly, according to the analysis of energy consumption in Xiamen City, the INT measures will save 1.23 million tons of coal equivalents (Mtce) in 2010, 2.97 Mtce in 2015, and 4.63 Mtce in 2020. In terms of measuring specific contributions, CES has the best effect, followed by CHP, IEC, ECB, MVC and DNR. The industrial sector has the greatest energy saving potential in Xiamen, followed by commercial, transportation, and household sectors. Thirdly, in terms of GHG emissions mitigation, the INT measures will reduce 6.3 Mt CO2 in 2010, 13.8 Mt CO2 in 2015, and 18.9 Mt CO2 in 2020. Among all policy measures, CES makes the greatest contribution, followed by CHP, MVC, IEC, ECB and DNR. From consumption sectors, the greatest potential for reducing emissions lies in the industrial sector, followed by transportation, commercial and household sectors. Energy structure change has the great reduction potential. Fourthly, on comprehensive considerations of both energy conservation and emission mitigation, the CES measure has the most important place in energy saving and emission mitigation for Xiamen; and industrial sector has the greatest potential. In addition, the optimization of energy use in Xiamen is an important long-term strategy for reducing emissions. For Xiamen, it is the pathway to low-carbon city by promoting cleaner fuel use, controlling industrial sector’s energy consumption and GHG emissions, and optimizing urban energy structure.
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