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作 者 ：郁家成,吴长春,黄小燕,郁阳,吴必文,周明,郭秀云

期 刊 ：生态学报 2008年 28卷 10期 页码：5039~5046

关键词：中值温度；干燥度指数；相关回归分析；计算；应用；简便方法；

Keywords:median temperature, aridity index, correlation and regression analysis, calculation, application, convenient method,

摘 要 ：利用合肥2003年逐日温度资料进行相关分析和回归分析，发现中值温度与最低、最高及平均温度之间存在极显著的相关性，回归模型的拟合优度均在96.8％以上。依据合肥多年逐日中值温度和平均温度的回归分析，建立了一元回归方程y＝10026x-0.4683，并通过了α＝0.001水平检验；对其他地区资料进行分析也发现有同样规律,这充分表明了日中值温度与日平均温度之间存在极显著回归关系。另外，根据合肥多年气象资料，对“蒸降比”与积温干燥度指数进行相关分析和回归分析，建立了干燥度指数计算的新公式Ye＝0.282054＋0.552118E/r。方法可直接利用蒸发量和降水量常规气象数据，简便地计算出各年份干燥度指数；也可用在低于10℃期间，以便计算年内各季节或月份干燥度指数；经分析验证，效果良好。

Abstract:Based on correlation and regression analysis on daily temperature data in Hefei,Anhui Province in 2003, the extremely significant correlations among median temperatures, minimal temperatures, maximal temperatures and average temperatures are found, and the goodness of fit test of regression model is more than 96.8%. According to the regression analysis on daily median temperatures and average temperatures for many years in Hefei, the regression equation y = 10026x-0.4683, which passes the α＝0.001 level testing is established. The same disipline can be found in other areas, which fully indicates a universal regression relationship between daily median temperatures and daily average temperatures. In addition，a new formula of aridity index calculation Ye＝0.282054＋0.552118E/r is setup based upon the correlation and regression analysis on the ratio of evaporation to rainfall and the aridity index of accumulated temperature. This method can be employed to calculate conveniently either the annual aridity index based on the conventional meteorological data of evaporation and rainfall or the seasonal and monthly aridity index during the period of temperature below 10℃.The calculated results have been tested well.

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