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作 者 ：张林波,李兴,李文华,王维,刘孝富*

期 刊 ：生态学报 2009年 29卷 2期 页码：889~897

关键词：人类承载力；承载力二相性；进化树；增长限制；展望；

Keywords:human carrying capacity, carrying capacity dualism, evolutionary tree, growth limit, prospect,

摘 要 ：建立在自然生物种群数量动态基础之上的承载力理论，当其应用于人类生态系统的研究时，遇到了极大的挑战和困惑。总结了人类承载力研究在理论基础、调控机理和估算方法3个方面存在的关键问题与困境，指出在理论基础方面人类承载力的客观性一直是生态学界和经济学界争论的焦点；在调控机理方面，现有的承载力研究尚不能解释人类经济社会增长不符合Logistic增长规律的因素和机理；在估算方法方面，现有的人类承载力估算方法还不能为人类经济社会的实践提供切实可行的决策依据。通过广泛收集和吸纳生态科学、地球科学、物理科学、环境考古学等诸多领域的最新研究成果，指出地球生态系统的复杂性、人类承载力的社会属性和承载力研究思路上存在的偏差是承载力研究困境产生的主要原因，在此基础上提出了解决承载力研究困境的研究思路和未来研究重点。

Abstract:Traditional theory of ecological carrying capacity, which was established on the basis of quantitative dynamic of natural biological population, met extreme challenge while applied to human ecosystem research. This paper summarized the key problems and dilemmas in three aspects of theoretical foundation, regulation mechanism and estimation method of human carrying capacity research, respectively. As to theoretical foundation, the objectivity of human carrying capacity has always been the arguing issue among ecologists and economists. As to regulation mechanism, current achievements of carrying capacity researches have been unable to explain the unusual mechanism that the development of economy and society didn′t grow along Logistic increasing law. Furthermore, current estimation methods could not provide practical decision-making foundation for the development of economy and society either. With extensively reviews on the latest achievements in ecological science, earth science, physics and environmental archaeology, this paper summarized that complexity of earth ecosystem and social property of human carrying capacity as well as researchers′ wrong perception on carrying capacity were three main reasons that led to the research dilemma of human carrying capacity. Based on this understanding, the future ways out from the dilemma and the key fields of human carrying capacity research are proposed at the end of the article.

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