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作 者 ：邓慧平,刘厚风

期 刊 ：生态学报 2000年 20卷 6期 页码：958~963

关键词：土壤水量平衡；草原生产力极端事件；松嫩草原；

Keywords:Globle climate change, soil water balance, accumulated temperature, steppe production, extremes, Songnen Steppe,

摘 要 ：根据 4个大气环流模式 CO2 倍增试验结果并结合土壤水量平衡模型 ,气候 -草原生产力统计模型及逐日气温、降水随机模拟技术评估了未来 1 0 0 a温室效应引起的气候变化对松嫩草原土壤蒸散、土壤水分、干旱频率、活动积温 ,草原生产力及极端气象事件的影响。主要结论如下 :土壤蒸散 7～ 8月份有较大幅度的增加而旱季 ( 1 0～ 4月份有所减少 ,年蒸散将增加 ;土壤水分各月均将减少 ,干旱频率明显增加 ;≥ 0℃、≥ 1 0℃活动积温明显增加 ;草原生产力下降 2 %～ 4 % ;极端高温和低温明显上升 ,极端低温事件大大减少而高温事件明显增加。

Abstract:The impacts of globle climate changes on soil water balance, accumulated temperature, drought frequency, steppe productivity and extremes are investigated in the Songnen Steppe with model calculation results are as follows:1)According to the four GCMs model outputs, in the Songnen Steppe, temperature will rise 2.8～7.5℃ and precipitation will increase by 10% or so by the end of next century.2)With a soil water balance model, evapotranspiration and soil water content are calculated under 1×CO 2 and 2×CO 2 r...

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