---

作 者 ：金继运;李家康;李书田

期 刊 ：植物营养与肥料学报 2006年 12卷 5期 页码：601-609

关键词：化肥贡献率；化肥需求量；粮食安全；

Keywords:contribution of chemical fertilizer, chemical fertilizer demand, food security,

摘 要 ：本文根据相关文献资料,综述了化肥在保障我国粮食安全中的作用与贡献,分析和预测了实现2010、2015、2020年粮食总产目标所需新增化肥的数量。根据近6年来我国粮食生产中出现的问题,指出要保障我国粮食安全,除了继续发展化肥工业,增加化肥用量之外,国家应采取其他相应措施,包括稳定粮食作物的种植面积(至少应维持在11000万公顷水平);调整粮食价格,保护农民种粮积极性;改善农田基本生产条件,推行节水灌溉技术,促进粮食均衡增产;适度提高粮食净进口份额等等。单纯依靠增加化肥的投入,实现国内粮食供需平衡,不仅代价太大(包括资源、环境和成本代价),市场和农民也不一定能够接受。

Abstract:This article summarized the role and contribution of chemical fertilizers in ensuring food security and analyzed/predicted the increased amount of chemical fertilizers needed to meet grain production goals in 2010,2015 and 2020, respectively.According to problems presented in grain production during the last six years,in order to guarantee the food security,beside continued development of chemical fertilizer industry and increase of chemical fertilizer application other corresponding measures such as stabling planting area of grain crop (at least 110 M ha),adjusting grain price and protecting farmer benefit,improving basic conditions of farmland,implementing water-saving irrigation technique,and moderately increasing grain import,should be adapted.Relying exclusively on increase chemical fertilizer to fulfill the balance of domestic grain supply and demand was not only high cost(including resources,environment and costs of production),but also impossible to be accepted by market and farmers.

---