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期 刊 ：植物保护学报 1995年

关键词：多维时间序列分析；稻纵卷叶螟；预测预报；

Keywords:multiple dimension time series analysis rice leaf roller forecasting,

摘 要 ：利用多维时间序列分析方法,以梅雨三要素作控制因子,对江苏通州市稻纵卷叶螟迁入代的迁入高峰日、高峰日蛾量及迁入代累计蛾量提前1年作预测,3年预测结果准确率很高,为害虫的长期预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法。

Abstract:Three determinatives of plum rains were used in CAR model as control factors to forecast the peak day of immigration, adult numbers caught on the peak day and accumulated adult numbers in the immigrant generation of rice leaf roller Cnaphalocrocis medinal

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