Abstract:In order to predict the future populations of T4 new strains of Puccinia striiformis f.sp.tritici in China,the Mingxian 169 was used as the host to estimate the parasitic fitness. The results showed that the infectivity (represented by number of colonies) contributed to the most important portion in parasitic fitness,and the next two important characters for rust fungal parasitic fitness were spread capacity and sporulation capacity.Germination ability didn‘t show significant difference among the tested races.The mathematical models had been used to estimate three principal components:infectivity,spread capacity and sporulation capacity.According to these models,the relative parasitic fitness of isolates CYR32 and CYR33 was higher than that of other tested races and had already been the predominant races at the present time.Isolate Su11-4 was in the middle. Isolate CYR31 and CYR29 showed lower parasitic fitness,their occurrence frequency had been decreasing recent years and becoming secondary race.Also,for the lower parasitic fitness, the new pathogenic type T4 infected the seedling of differential host ‘Zhong 4’couldn’t become the prevalent race in the bear future.