金融危机发生后,中国林产品出口增长几乎处于停滞状态。本文在指出恒定市场份额模型缺点的基础上,提出修正的恒定市场份额模型,并运用修正后的模型分析金融危机影响中国林产品出口的内在机制。结果显示: 金融危机冲击下的世界林产品需求萎缩,是中国林产品出口增长几乎停滞的主要原因; 而世界林产品需求结构的调整和主要进口市场分布的变化也产生了一定影响。
With the financial crisis happened, the growth of China‘s forest products export became very slow. This paper pointed out some defaults in the traditional constant market share (CMS) model, and put forward to the adjusted CMS model that can solve these defaults. Then it used the adjusted CMS model to analysis the interior mechanism on how the financial crisis affected China‘s forest products export. The conclusions indicated that the declined demand for forest products all over the world was the main cause of the very slow growth of China‘s forest products export. In addition, the change of products structure and market distribution also played roles to some extent.
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