选用符合林火发生数据结构的Poisson和零膨胀Poisson(ZIP)模型对大兴安岭林区1980—2005年间林火发生与气象因素关系进行建模分析，并与普通最小二乘回归（ordinary least squares, OLS）方法的结果进行了对比分析.结果表明：OLS模型对研究区域林火发生与气象因素关系的拟合结果较差(R2=0.215); Poisson和ZIP模型的拟合效果较好，具有较好的火灾次数预测能力，且ZIP模型的预测能力高于Poisson模型.运用AIC和Vuong检验方法对Poisson和ZIP模型的拟合水平进行进一步检验，表明ZIP模型的数据拟合度优于Poisson模型.
The Poisson’s and Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) models that meet the data structure of forest fire occurrence were used to explore the relationships between the forest fire occurrence and climate factors in Daxing’an Mountains in 1980-2005. Compared with the ordinary least squares (OLS) model which often produced poor fitting results (R2=0.215), the Poisson’s and ZIP models operated better, and had better prediction ability on the forest fire occurrence. The AIC and Vuong tests further indicated that ZIP model produced better fitting results, and thus, had better prediction ability than Poisson model.