利用层次分析法和模糊综合评判法建立了生态安全评价指标体系，从水资源、环境和社会经济3个方面选取了18个评价指标对2006年新疆玛纳斯河流域绿洲生态安全进行了综合评价.结果表明：2006年，研究区生态状况处于基本安全水平，其隶属度值为0.3347，综合评分值为0.551；水资源安全指数和社会经济指数分别处于比较安全和非常安全水平，而环境安全指数则处于不安全水平状态.水资源是绿洲实现可持续发展的保障，社会经济指数和环境安全指数展示了绿洲的发展水平和环境状况，三因素极大程度上决定了绿洲的生态安全水平.
By using analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
, an index system for ecological safety assessment was built, and 18 indices in
the aspects of water resource, environment, and social economy were selected to
assess the ecological safety of Manas River Basin oasis in 2006. In the study ar
ea, the ecological situation in 2006 was basically safe, with the membership deg
ree being 03347 and the integrated evaluation score being 0551. The water re
source safety index, social economy index, and environmental safety index were i
n the levels of relatively safe, extremely safe, and unsafe, respectively. Water
resource index could represent the sustainable development degree of oasis, whi
le social economy index and environment safety index could indicate the oasis de
velopment level and environment situation, respectively. These three indices cou
ld most reflect the ecological safety level of the oasis.