应用Poisson回收模型和负二项回归模型进行林火预测预报,研究模型的使用条件和检验方法,以大兴安岭地区1980—2005年该地区林火发生数据为基础,并运用AIC检验方法对模型的拟合水平进行检验,探讨这2种模型对林火发生的预测能力,为在我国林业领域的应用提供必要的理论依据和数据支持。
A Poisson regression model and a negative binomial regression model (NB model) are often used in areas such as medicine and economy, but rarely in the domestic forestry sector, especially in the forest fire forecasting. Based on data of forest fire occurrences in Daxing’anling region in 1980—2005, this paper profoundly analyzes the application conditions and test methods of the two models. The AIC method was used to check the fitting level of the models and the capability of the models for forecasting forest fires was discussed. This study provided necessary theoretical basis and data support for the application of the two models in the field of forestry in China.