Abstract:Forests insuration is a new kind of insuration in China. One of the questions is how to decide the insuration rate. The present paper, analysing the fire date collected in the areas of Fujian Province has given the Probabilitydistribution of the number and the area of forest fire. Mote-carlo method hasbeen used to simulate the number and the area of forest fire which will su-pposedly occur each year and a reasonable inauration rate has been determin-ed