通过实地调查研究及查阅相关资料,整理出枣实蝇的基础生物学信息,利用适生性分析软件CLIMEX和GARP,结合地理信息系统软件ArcGIS,预测枣实蝇在中国的适生区及其适生程度。综合2种软件的预测结果,认为枣实蝇在我国适生范围很广,其中新疆、甘肃、内蒙古、宁夏、四川、云南、陕西、山西、河北、北京、天津、河南、辽宁、山东、江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南、江西、福建、广西、广东、海南等23个省(市、区)的大多数地区为枣实蝇主要适生区域;次要适生区域包括新疆北部和南部的局部地区、内蒙古临河以东局部地区、宁夏南部局部区域、甘肃与新疆相接的局部地区、川甘陕3省交界的局部地区、青海格尔木市和都兰县、陕西南部地区、山西北部地区、河北北部地区、吉林与内蒙古及辽宁接壤的局部地区、四川中部、重庆东部、西藏墨脱县、西藏察隅县、西藏错那县、湖北与湖南的西部地区、贵州北部地区、浙江北部局部地区、广西与广东的北部局部地区、台湾西部地区。参照国际上有害生物危险性定量分析方法,首次综合评估枣实蝇在我国各省市区的潜在危险性,认为枣实蝇在中国为高度危险性害虫,对我国枣产业的发展构成巨大的潜在威胁。
Through field survey and a review of the relevant literature, the basic biological information about Carpomya veusuviana was collected. The suitability analysis software, CLIMEX and GARP, combined with ArcGIS were used to analyze and predict the potential geographic distribution of C. veusuviana in China. The integrating analyses results shows there is a wide potential distribution for C. vesuviana. The primary suitability regions include the most parts of Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Henan, Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan. The secondary suitability regions include north and south Xinjiang,eastern part of Linhe in Inner Mongolia, south Ningxia, part of Gansu next to Xinjiang and the transect districts of Sichuan, Gansu and Shaanxi, Geermu City and Dulan County of Qinghai, north Shanxi, north Hebei, part of Jilin next to Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, the middle parts of Sichuan, eastern parts of Chongqing, Motuo County and Chayu County and Cuona County of Tibet, West Hubei, West Hunan, north Guizhou, north Zhejiang, north Guangxi, north Guangdong, west Taiwan. According to the quantitative methods of the pest risk analysis, the risk level of C. vesuviana to the different regions in China was evaluated. The result shows that C .vesuviana is a highly dangerous pest to jujube in China. It will potentially threaten the development of jujube in China.