---

作 者 ：王永民 刘国荣 王志明 佟影 任万军

期 刊 ：林业科学 1998年 34卷 3期 页码：74-79

关键词：落叶松褐锈病；为害指标；防治指标；预测预报；

Keywords:Larch needle brown rust, Injury index, Control threshold, Forecast,

摘 要 ：落叶松褐锈病对林木当年生长无明显影响,但对第二年生长影响显著。连年发病损失量剧增;不同病情指数(X)每公顷材积生长损失量为Y=194/1+e^{5.49337-0.06893X};该病为害指标———病情指数为36。立木林价、防治效果和成本分别为C、Q、E时,防治指标方程为:1.94C[1/1+e^{5.49337-0.06893X}-1/1+e^{5.49337-0.06893(1-Q)X}]-E=0;前一年9月份降水量(X₃)、当年5月份平均气温(X₁)和8月份相对湿度(X₂)为测报因子。预测区域平均病情指数Y=5.185+3.2596X₁-0.42105X₂+0.08627X₃±6.9。

Abstract:The larch needle brown rust (Triphragmiopsis laricinum(Chou)Tai) is a common larch fungal disease in the east of Jilin Province, China. The Larch (Larix olgensis) stands infected in the first year generaly grow normally, but in the second year they are affected seriously, the growth loss increases greatly in the stand infected lasting 2 years or over 2 years. Regresion equation was developed to predict disease index (X) and volume losses of growth/hm²(Y):Y=194/1+e^{5.49337-0.06893X}. The injury index was defined as 35. The equation of the economic threshold was developed to describe the relations among standing volume price(C), the efficiency of control (Q) and the cost of control (E):1.94C[1/1+e^{5.49337-0.06893X}-1/1+e^{5.49337-0.06893(1-Q)X}]-E=0.The equation of forecasting the mean disease index was:Y=5.185+3.2596X₁-0.42105X₂+0.08627X₃±6.9(Y:mean disease index, X₁:mean temperature in May of the current year, X₂:mean relative humidity of the current year, X₃:mean precipitation in September of the last year).

---