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作 者 ：王素艳;霍治国;李世奎;卢志光;薛昌颖

期 刊 ：作物学报 2005年 31卷 03期 页码：267-274

关键词：冬小麦；干旱灾损；风险评估指标；综合风险区划；

Keywords:Winter wheat, Losses caused by drought, Risk evaluation index, Comprehensive risk regionalization,

摘 要 ：本文基于风险分析的原理，利用北方冬麦区长年小麦产量资料和气象资料，建立了适用于北方冬小麦干旱灾损风险评估的指标体系，包括自然水分亏缺率风险指数、减产率风险指数和抗灾性能趋势向量系数等风险评估指标的意义、表达模式和估算技术、计算和分区。结果表明，北方冬小麦各项风险评估指标均具有明显的区域差异和一定的连

Abstract:There are many heavy natural disasters in China which can cause losses to society, economy and agriculture. In all the disasters, agrometeorological disasters account for 60%, in which the drought occurs frequently, especially in spring in North China, and the frequency is about 65%. In order to rec

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