根据光温对菊花品质的影响，通过不同定植期和不同品种试验，建立了以生理辐热积（physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR, PTEP）为尺度的温室标准切花菊品质预测模型，并用独立的试验数据对模型进行检验.结果表明：模型对温室标准切花菊的展叶数、单株叶面积、株高、茎粗、节间长和花径的模拟值与实测值的符合度较好,模拟值与实测值基于1∶1线的决定系数（R2）和预测相对误差（RSE）分别为0.99、0.98、0.98、0.92、0.87、0.88和5.5%、6.5%、5.9%、4.1%、11.2%、12.4%.表明该品质预测模型预测精度高、实用性强，可为温室标准切花菊生产中的光温调控提供理论依据和决策支持.
Abstract:Based on the effects of light and temperature on chrysanthemum quality and the experiments with different chrysanthemum varieties and planting dates,a quality prediction model of greenhouse standard cut chrysanthemum with the physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR (PTEP) as the measurement scale was developed and validated. The results showed that the predicted results, including the number of unfolding leaves, leaf area, plant height, stem diameter, internode length and flower diameter, accorded well with the observed ones, and the determination coefficient (R2) and relative prediction error (RSE) based on 1∶1 line were 0.99, 0.98, 0.98, 0.92, 0.87 and 0.88, and 5.5%, 6.5%, 5.9%, 4.1%, 11.2%, 12.4%, respectively. This model was of high precision and practicable, which could be used in optimizing the light and temperature management for greenhouse standard cut chrysanthemum production.