作 者 ：肖强,文礼章*,易定宏,胡聃,于盈盈,张海涛
期 刊 ：生态学报 2010年 30卷 5期 页码：1148~1156
Keywords:ascendancy theory, input-output analysis, eco-economic system, development capacity,
摘 要 ：从信息论的角度入手，运用上升性理论对生态经济系统增长、发展与环境质量进行定量地描述。以重庆市为例讨论了上升性理论在生态经济系统中的应用，利用投入产出表的延长表来计算产业废弃物的排放量，并利用产业废弃物的排放量来反映环境质量状况，把环境质量变化归因于受系统总吞吐量的规模效应、技术效应和结构效应的共同影响。研究结果表明,在1990-1999年重庆市生态经济系统实物型总吞吐量年均增加7.40%,上升性(A)增加近4倍,但是平均相互信息却从0.447比特降到0.342比特,废气排放量年均增长1.1%，废水排放年均增长率达3.2％，根据上升性理论表明在这10a间重庆市生态经济系统处于不可持续的发展状况。在1999-2006年, 重庆市生态经济系统实物型总吞吐量仍不断增加,但年均增加率从1999-2006年的7.40%降到3.91%,上升性(A)增加了2倍多,平均相互信息从0.342比特增加到0.478比特,废气排放量的年均下降2.5%，废水排放量年均下降3.7％，这表明在这7a间重庆市生态经济系统朝着良性方向发展。要实现重庆市的生态经济系统良性发展,需提高资源在生态经济系统中的利用效率,实现资源的循环利用,加强资源在生态经济系统中各部门之间的流通性。
Abstract:Based on network flow analysis, Ulanowicz treated the average mutual information as a cardinal attribute of a developing network and developed the ascendency formula, offering a comprehensive way to quantitatively analyze the relationship between growth and development in an eco-economic system. A basic result is that C, “the development capacity”, serves as an upper bound on ascendency, where C=T×H,H is system diversity and T is the total system throughput.To investigate the development status of Chongqing city, we use Input-Output data from 1990 to 2006 to quantify the eco-economic system performance according to Ulanowicz′s ascendency formula. At the same time we use the extension of the I-O model to account for the discharged volume of industrial waste and the resulting situation of environmental quality based on the discharged volume of industrial waste.The change of environmental quality attributable to the structural effects and technological effects and the effect of scale on total system throughput. The results show that the system ascendency in 1999 was four times that of 1990, but the average mutual information decreased from 0.447 bits in 1990 to 0.342 bits in 1999, the discharged volume of exhaust gases increase by 1.1% and waste water increased 3.2% on average. The results show that Chongqing′s eco-economic system was on an unsustainable path from 1990 to1999. The system ascendency also increased by two times from 1999 to 2006. The corresponding material representation of the total system throughput was still rising from 1999 to 2006, but the yearly rate of increase dropped from7.40% during period of 1990-1999 to 3.91%. On the other hand, during the 1999-2006 period, the system ascendency gradually increases, rising from 0.342 bits in 1999 to 0.478 bits in 2006, with the volume of discharged exhaust gas reduced by 2.5% and waste water reduced by 3.7% on average. The results suggest that Chongqing′s eco-economy moved in the direction of sustainability during the period of 1999 2006. Taking into account the actual situation of Chongqing city, the most sustainable approach is to increase efficiency in resource utilization, strengthen the utilization of recycled resources, enhance communication and information sharing among industries in an impartial manner. Such measures can increase average mutual information, and can improve Chongqing′s development capacity.
全 文 ：