作 者 ：肖强,文礼章*,刘俊,胡聃,李锋
期 刊 ：生态学报 2010年 30卷 19期 页码：5237~5244
Keywords:urbanization, eco-environment, error correction, VECM model,
摘 要 ：运用协整理论和误差修正模型考察了重庆市1978-2007 年期间城市化与生态环境相互作用的关系,遴选出作用于生态环境的2项主要的城市化指标和影响城市化的4项主要的生态环境指标,它们能反映出交互作用的机制。结果发现: 1978-2007 年,重庆市城市化与生态环境之间存在长期均衡关系,城市化对生态环境的正向作用明显强于生态环境对城市化的反向影响,误差修正系数较长期协整方程中的系数要小。从长期来看，城市化水平对生态环境变化的解释能力正在逐步增强，这充分证明生态环境功能的弱化是城市化步伐推进的必然结果。就城市化对生态环境的响应效果而言, 一方面城市化是影响重庆市生态环境的重要原因, 另一方面生态环境对城市化也存在着反作用。生态环境对城市化进程产生外在压力, 但这一反馈机制往往具有一定的滞后效应。城市化对解释生态环境预测方差分解起着重要作用, 然而生态环境对城市化预测方差的贡献度较小。
Abstract:There exists various contradictions and stresses between the urbanization and ecosystems. Like the driving force of economic development, the stress on ecosystems plays a decisive role in the development of urbanization. This study makes an investigation for the interactive relationships between urbanization and ecosystems in Chongqing City in China by using Co-integration Theory and Error correction model from 1978 to 2007, and the search selected 2 main urbanization indicators expressing ecosystem stresses and 4 ecological and environment indicatorsthat is realted to urbanization. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and ecosystems, and the non-stationary series of urbanization, ecological and environment indicators become stable after the first-order difference which are all the first-order integration process, and there exist two equations in the city of Chongqing from 1978 to 2007. From the long run, urbanization is negatively correlated with waste gas, waste water and solid wastes while positively correlated with per capita consumer price index and per capita energy using amount. The co-integration theory indicates that whenurbanization changes by one unit, the waste gas discharge amount, waste water discharge amount and solid wastes discharge amount change respectively by 0.551,1.479,2.211, and simultaneously the per capita energy amount changes by 1.391. Error correction mechanism prevents the expansion of variation of long-term relationship in quantity and scale, the size of error correction parameters reflect a short-term adjustment that deviates from the long-term equilibrium. When urbanization changes by 1%, the ecological and environment indicators vary at a rate of 13.6%,0.5%,16.5%,1.9% inthe negative direction, these indicators are smaller than that of the long-term co-integrated regression equation, which shows that the long-term influence of urbanization on ecological and environment indicators is much more remarkable, and the ecological and environment indicators restrained the process of urbanization but did not stop it. Impulse response analysis shows that urbanization is a important factor that influences ecological and environmental changes, the change of ecological and environmental quality and waste discharge has a reaction on urbanization. As far as the result of response is concerned, the negative response of waste discharge on urbanization indicates the increase on waste discharge amount causes the change in the preference of environment quality, which caused external pressure on urbanization transformation, but it takes some certain periods for the feedback delay of ecological environment indicators on urbanization. Generally speaking, the variance decomposition analysis indicates that urbanization plays a great role in explaining the predicted variance of various ecological and environmental indicators, and can explain the predicted variance of ecological and environmental indicators of waste gas, solid wastes and liquid waste at a rate of above 73%. This result shows that the urbanization in Chongqing City,the energy utilization and the large amount of waste discharge are the main driving forces that produce great negative impacts onthe ecological and environmental indicators. Comparatively speaking, the ecological environment indicators can explain less for the predicted variance of urbanization, and the solid waste with a high level of contribution can also only explain by 1674% which is much lower than the contribution level of urbanization on ecological and environmental indicaotrs.
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