Abstract:Total age\|specific fertility rate (TAFR or TFR) records the total number of births that would occur per woman in a hypothetical group subject at each age to the rate of childbearing experienced in a given calendar year. In popularly speaking, TFR is the average number of children that each women will have during her lifetime. Present paper set up the mathematical calculation formula for TFR as “TFR=1+S/100”（S represents the sex ratio of men to women）.Based on the analysis of population growth and TFR change in China, we found that the TFR of China was less than 1.8, and there was a great possibility that the parameter was very nearly 1.1. In Beijing and Shanghai, it was already less than 1.0. This is a very dangerous signal for Chinese population developing tendency. In terms of the disciplinarian of “as the economic level promoted, the birth desire of women descended”, and also the templates of “population atrophy” in France, Japan, Germany and Russia, it is time to set up the early warning alarm system. In addition, according to the TFR forecasting model of Chinese population that we set, the population number of our country would be 3.98 million in 300 years. There is a high possibility of extinguish of Chinese. “Empty nest” in such a big country is not deliberately exaggerated so as to create a sensation.