摘 要 ：根据菊花生长对光温的反应，设计不同品种、不同单株主杆数、不同定植密度和不同定植日期的试验，构建了以生理辐热积（Physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR, PTEP）为尺度的温室多杆切花菊的干物质生产与分配预测模型，并用与建模相独立的试验数据对模型进行了检验。结果表明：随单位面积杆数增加，切花菊的单位面积地上干物质产量增加，单枝切花鲜重减少。所建模型对温室多杆切花菊的单株叶干重、茎干重、花干重和地上部分鲜重的预测值与实际观测值基于1∶1线的决定系数（R2）分别为：0.96、 0.95、0.82和0.97，回归估计标准误（RMSE）分别为：0.863、1.005、0.201和10.190g·株-1。模型模拟精度较高，可为温室切花菊栽培密度和保留杆数的优化调控提供理论依据。
Abstract:Based on the effects of temperature and radiation on chrysanthemum growth, experiments with different cultivars, different stem number per plant, different planting density and different planting dates were carried out under greenhouse conditions in Shanghai from 2005 to 2006. A concept of physiological product of thermal effectiveness and photosynthetically active radiation (PTEP, MJ m-2) was proposed to develop a model with the PTEP as measurement scale for predicting the effect of stem number per area on dry matter production and partitioning of cut chrysanthemum. Independent experimental data were used to validate the model. The results showed that with increase of stem number per area, dry matter production increased but shoot fresh matter production per plant decreased. The model successfully predicted the dry matters of leaf, stem and flower as well as the fresh matter of shoot per plant in cut Chrysanthemum with different stem number and planting density. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) based on the 1:1 line for the dry matters of leaf, stem and flower as well as the fresh matter of shoot per plant were 0.96, 0.95, 0.82 and 0.97, and 0863, 1.005, 0.201, 10.190 g·plant-1, respectively. The model can be used for optimizing light and temperature management for multi stem cut Chrysanthemum with different stem number and planting density under greenhouses conditions.