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期 刊 ：植物保护学报 1995年

关键词：矢尖蚧；多元分析；预测；列联表；柑桔类果树；

Keywords:citrus arrowhead scale, occurrence time, multi-factorial analysis, forecast, contingency table,

摘 要 ：利用１９７７－１９９２年共１６年的资料，从１－３月的２３个气象因子中，通过相关分析逐步变量选择，筛选出５个与矢蚧一代幼蚧发生期紧密相关的预报因子。这５个因子是２月温湿系数、３月均温和相对湿度、１－３月日均温及大于１０℃的天数。据此建立了预测矢蚧一代幼蚧发生期的多元回归方程、判别函数和条件频率列联表。经统计检验、对１９９３年的实测验证和计算历史符合率，均证明它们在理论和实践上是可行的。其中条件频率列

Abstract:Based on the data from 1977 to 1992 and by applying multi-factorial and contingency table analyses, five key factors were selected from 23 meteorological elements (Jan. to Mar. ) , and three mathematical methods were developed for forecasting the occurren

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