作 者 ：蒋 冲1，王 飞1，2*，穆兴民1，2，李 锐1，2
期 刊 ：西北植物学报 2012年 9期 页码：1888~1896
关键词：秦岭南北；气温；降水；NPP(净第一性生产力)；植被类型；
Keywords:the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains, temperature, precipitation, NPP (net primary productivity), vegetation type,
摘 要 ：基于秦岭南北1960～2011年月平均气温和降水量等气候要素资料，应用周广胜 张新时模型计算了近52年的植被净第一性生产力（NPP），分析其年际和年代际变化特征及其对温度和降水的响应。结果表明：(1)研究区多年平均气温呈南高北低分布格局，1993年为气温变化转折点，此前为降温趋势，秦岭以南降温更明显，此后研究区大面积升温，近52年间98%以上的站点呈升温趋势。(2)降水量由北向南递增，1985年为降水变化转折点，此前降水呈减少趋势，此后70%以上站点降水增多；1960～2011年间秦岭以北地区有变干趋势，而秦岭南坡以变湿为主，其余地区变化不明显。(3)周广胜 张新时模型的模拟结果与实测值的平均误差为11.1%，整体上精度较高，说明模型可以用于秦岭南北地区NPP的估算；研究区NPP呈南高北低分布格局，NPP增加的站点所占比例排序为汉水流域>秦岭南坡>巴巫谷地>秦岭以北；NPP年际波动较小，极值比介于1.34～1.89之间。(4)未来气候变化对NPP的可能影响预测结果显示，水热条件同时改善（a情景）的情况下NPP普遍增加14.8%以上，秦岭以北增加趋势更明显，温带落叶阔叶林增幅最大，温带草丛增幅最小；温度升高而降水减少（b情景）的情况下大部分站点NPP减少，亚热带（热带）常绿（落叶阔叶）林减幅最大，温带落叶阔叶林减幅最小；c情景下NPP增幅有限，明显小于a情景，秦岭以北地区的增加趋势更明显，不同植被类型的变化趋势与a情景一致，但明显小于前者。
Abstract:Based on climatic observational data of monthly average temperature and precipitation in Northern and Southern Regions of the Qinling Mountains in 1960～2011,the net primary productivity (NPP) of natural vegetation in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains was computed by using Zhou Guangsheng Zhang Xinshi Model,climate trend rate and Spline interpolation method.The variation of temperature and precipitation and its effect on NPP (Net Primary Productivity) were analyzed.The results are as follow:(1)The average annual temperature of the research area was higher in southern part and lower in northern part.1993 was the turning point of temperature.The cooling trend in southern area before 1993 was more obvious,since then the temperature of most stations increased.The temperature of 98% stations increased during last 52 years.(2)The annual precipitation decreased from south to north.1985 was the turning point of precipitation.The precipitation showed a decreasing trend before 1985,while 70% stations increased since 1985.The northern part was becoming dry while the southern slope was becoming wet.There was not significant change in other parts.(3)The mean error between simulated NPP and measured NPP is 11.1%,which is relatively small,and this model is suitable to simulate NPP in Northern and Southern Regions of the Qinling Mountains.NPP was lower in northern part and higher in southern part.According to the size,the order was Ba-Wu Valley,Han River Basin,the southern slope and northern region of Qinling Mountains.The ratio between maximum and minimum values was small which ranging between 1.34 and 1.89.(4)NPP increased over 14.8% under the condition that temperature and precipitation improved together,the northern region of Qinling Mountains had more obvious increasing trend compared with the southern region.Temperate zone deciduous broadleaved showed biggest increasing range,while temperate hassock was the smallest one;Temperature increasing but precipitation decreasing (scenario b) was not good for the accumulation of NPP,thus most stations would decrease instead.Subtropical and tropical broadleaved and deciduous forest showed biggest increasing rate,while temperate zone deciduous broadleaved was the smallest one;NPP increased obviously in scenario c (temperature increasing but precipitation no change),which was smaller than scenario a,NPP of northern region of Qinling Mountains increased more obviously than that of southern region.Different vegetation types showed same changing trend as scenario a,which was smaller than scenario a.