作 者 ：吴建国
期 刊 ：武汉植物学研究 2010年 28卷 4期 页码：437-452
Keywords:Climate Change, Protected Plants, Distribution, Potential effects,
摘 要 ：利用CART(classification and regression tree,分类和回归树)模型,采用A2和B2气候变化情景,模拟分析了气候变化对桫椤(Alsophila spinulosa(wall.ex hook.)Tryon)、水青树(Tetracentron sinense Oliv)、十齿花(Dipentondon sinicus Dunn)、青檀(Pteroceltis tatarinowii Maxim)、桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum emodi(Wall.)Ying)、太白红杉(Larix chinensis Beissn)和山白树(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl)的分布范围及空间格局的可能影响。结果显示:在气候变化下,这些植物目前适宜分布范围将缩小,其中太白红杉、山白树和水青树减少幅度较大,十齿花和青檀次之,桫椤和桃儿七较小。就植物新适宜及总适宜分布范围,太白红杉和山白树从1991～2020年到2081～2100年时段呈现减少趋势,其它植物却呈现增加趋势。气候变化下,这些植物空间分布格局将发生较大改变,太白红杉将失去适宜分布范围,其它植物目前适宜分布区的西部、南部、西南、东部和东南部一些区域将不再适宜,新适宜分布区将主要向北部、东北部、西部、西南或西北部一些区域扩展。气候变化下,这些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化的相关性并不一致,一些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关系数并不显著(p>0.05);除了桫椤新适宜及总适宜、十齿花和桃儿七目前适宜分布范围与年均气温和年降水量变化回归关系较密切外,其它植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和年降水量变化的多元线性回归关系都较弱。这说明,在气候变化情况下,这些植物空间分布格局将发生改变,目前适宜分布范围缩小,除太白红杉和山白树外,其他几种植物新适宜范围扩大。
Abstract:The effects of climate change on the distributions of Alsophila spinulosa(Alsophila spinulosa(Wall.Ex Hook.) Tryon),Tetracentron(Tetracentron sinense Oliv),Dipentondon(Dipentondon sinicus Dunn) Wingceltis(Pteroceltis tatarinowii Maxim),common peach-seven(Sinopodophyllum emodi(Wall.)Ying),Chinese larch(Larix chinensis Beissn) and Henry Wilsontree(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl) from China were analyzed using the classification and regression tree(CART) niche model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2.The results showed that climate change will cause a decrease in the current Chinese distribution of these plants.Chinese larch,Henry Wilsontree or Tetracentron exhibited the largest decrease,Dipentondon and Wingceltis was lower than Chinese larch,Henry Wilsontree,and Tetracentron,and the decrease of Alsophila spinulosa and common peach-seven showed the smallest decrease.The new and total distribution region of Chinese larch or Henry Wilsontree decreased from 1991-2020 and 2081-2100,while the remaining plants increased from 1991-2020 and 2081-2100,and they were higher in A2 scenario than those in B2 Scenario.Following climate change,distribution regions of Chinese larch would be mostly lost.The current distribution regions in the southwest,southeast,south and west of the other plant species would be reduced,while new distribution regions would expand towards the west,northwest,north,northeast,and southeast.Additionally,the current,new,and total distribution of the plants were either poorly related to or did not change consistently with the change in annual mean air temperature or precipitation.The linear relationships between the change in plant distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were poor except for the linear relationships between the change in the new or total distribution of Alsophila spinulosa and current distribution of Dipentondon and common peach-seven with annual mean air temperature or annual mean precipitation change in China.The results indicated that climate change in China will cause changes in spatial distribution pattern of these plants,decrease their current distribution regions,decrease new distribution of Chinese larch and Henry Wilsontree,and increase new distribution of the other plants.
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