建立棉花纤维品质指标的时空分布模型，对预测我国不同生态区棉花纤维品质，指导我国原棉进出口和纺纱企业配棉都具有重要意义。本文在田间试验的基础上，系统分析了棉花花铃期生理生态因子对棉花纤维品质的影响，量化了棉花品种、棉株空间枝节、花铃期日均温、光照长度、土壤含水量、棉株含氮量与棉花纤维品质指标形成的关系，并结合已有的棉花纤维品质指标生态模型，构建了机理性较强的预测纤维长度、比强度、麦克隆值、长度整齐度等单一纤维品质指标的时空分布模型及综合指标模型。利用不同年份、不同品种类型、不同生态区域、不同肥水管理条件下的试验资料对棉花纤维品质指标的时空分布模型进行了检验，显示纤维长度、比强度、麦克隆值、长度整齐度的模拟值与观察值之间的均方差根（RMSE），在时间分布模型中分别为0.15 mm、0.29 cN tex-1、0.18和0.36，在空间分布模型中分别为0.22 mm、0.60 cN tex-1和 0.15和0.86，与实际观察值间的误差皆小于5 %，说明本模型具有较好的预测性、通用性和准确性。
Construction of spatial-temporal distribution models on fiber quality indexes in cotton are highly important for forecasting fiber quality indexes in different ecological regions and guiding import and export of raw cotton and textile factory’s cotton blending in China. Field experiments were conducted at Nanjing (32°03’N, 118°47’E) in 2004 and Guanyun (34°18’′N, 119°14’E) in 1999. Based on the experiment data, the effects of genotypes, fruit branches and nodes, mean daily temperature, sunlight length, soil moisture and plant nitrogen content on cotton fiber quality indexes were quantified at flowering and boll-forming stages, and spatial-temporal distribution models on cotton fiber length, strength, micronaire value and length uniformity were further constructed by integrating existing eco-models on cotton fiber quality. Then the models were validated using the experiment data from different eco-sites, cultivars, N fertilizations and water conditions. The results showed that the values of the root mean square error (RMSE) between simulated and observed values on fiber length, strength, micronaire value and length uniformity were, respectively, 0.15 mm, 0.29 cN tex-1, 0.18, and 0.36 for temporal distribution models, and 0.22 mm, 0.60 cN tex-1, 0.15, and 0.86 for spatial distribution models, with the actual errors all lower than 5%. Overall, the present models are accurate and applicable for predicting spatial-temporal patterns of cotton quality indexes under different conditions.
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