棉纤维品质形成的准确模拟对构建棉花生长模拟系统及优质高产管理决策具有重要意义。本文以棉铃发育的生理生态过程为基础，采用生理发育时间作为定量发育进程的尺度，通过量化品种效应及水分、日均温和日温差等生态因子对棉纤维品质指标形成的影响，构建了预测棉纤维伸长、比强度增加和纤维素积累的模拟模型。利用不同生态点不同日均温和日温差条件以及不同水分处理的试验资料对模型进行了检验。结果显示，纤维长度、纤维比强度、纤维素含量模拟值与观测值之间的根均方差（RMSE）分别为1.15 mm，1.03 cN·tex-1和4.37%，表明模型具有较好的预测性和适用性。
Accurate prediction of fiber quality formation is highly important for successful cotton growth simulation and management decision. Experiments were conducted in natural environment to quantitatively describe the relation between the dynamic process of fiber quality formation and conditions of water supply and growth temperature in Nanjing (32°03′N，118°47′E), Anyang（36°7′N, 116°22′E）, Baoding (39°05′N, 115°47′E) and Shihezi (44°26′N，86°01′E) in 2002 and in Shihezi only in 1997，2003. A simulation model for predicting fiber elongation, strength and cellulose content accumulation was developed based on days after anthesis (DAA) and boll physiological development time (BPDT). The effects of soil water content, daily mean temperature (DMT) and daily temperature difference (DTD) were taken into account, along with genetic parameters for different cultivars in the model. The model was validated using the experiment data sets under different conditions of DTD, DMT, and soil water status at different eco-sites. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) between the simulated and observed values of fiber length, fiber strength and cellulose content are 1.15 mm, 1.03 cN·tex-1 and 4.37%, respectively, indicating that the model is accurate and applicable under different conditions.
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