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作 者 ：张建平,王春乙,杨晓光,赵艳霞,王靖

期 刊 ：生态学报 2009年 29卷 10期 页码：5516~5522

关键词：波动；WOFOST模型；模拟；中国东北；

Keywords:fluctuation, WOFOST model, simulation, Northeast China,

摘 要 ：东北三省处在我国高纬度地区，一直以来玉米生长季由温度导致的低温冷害是影响东北三省玉米生产波动的主要农业气象灾害；作物模式能对作物重要生理生态过程及其与气象、土壤等环境条件的关系进行数值模拟，人为再现农作物生长发育过程。借助WOFOST作物模型在东北三省玉米生产适应性验证的基础上，对该三省区近46a来（1961~2006年）因温度导致的玉米产量波动情况进行了模拟分析。结果显示，黑龙江、吉林、辽宁三省区的玉米产量波动趋势基本相一致，且随着年份的增加产量波动有减小的趋势，产量波动最大的是黑龙江省，波动范围-20％～12％；产量波动最小的是辽宁省，波动范围-15％～8％。

Abstract:Northeast China is one of the highest latitude areas in China, so the low temperature disaster during the maize growing season was the main agro-meteorological disasters which affected the maize production in Northeast China. Crop models can numerically simulate the relations between the important physiological and ecological processes of the crops and meteorology and soil, and reproduce crop growth processes. Therefore, based on the suitability test of WOFOST model in simulating the growth of maize in Northeast China, the paper analyzed the influence of the fluctuation of temperature on maize yields in recent 46 years in Northeast China, results showed that there was the same trends in the fluctuation of maize yields in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, the fluctuation decreases with the increase in years, the largest fluctuation occurred in Heilongjiang province, with the value ranging between -20%-12％,and smallest fluctuation occurred in Liaoning province, with the value ranging about -15%-8％.

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