摘 要 ：应用生物地球化学模型BIOME-BGC模型估算了1993~2004年红壤丘陵区湿地松林总第一性生产力（GPP）、净第一性生产力（NPP），并分析GPP、NPP年际变化对气候的响应以及未来气候变化情景下GPP、NPP的响应。结果表明，湿地松林1993~2004年GPP、NPP的总量变化波动于1 777~2 160 g C m-2 a-1之间和453~828 g C m-2 a-1之间，平均值分别为1 941 g C m-2 a-1和695 g C m-2 a-1。在研究时段内，GPP、NPP有缓慢增长趋势，GPP、NPP总量平均值从1990年代初期（1993~1996年）的1 826 、687 g C m-2 a-1上升到21世纪初期（2001~2004年）的2 026、693 g C m-2 a-1。这主要是由于研究时段内GPP、NPP对降水缓慢增长的正响应造成的。未来气候变化情景分析表明，CO2浓度倍增不利于湿地松林GPP、NPP的增长，但均不超过15%。在CO2浓度不增加条件下，GPP正向响应了降水单独变化和温度升高1.5℃且降水增加情景，正向响应NPP的情景条件是降水的单独变化；当CO2浓度倍增和气候改变时，预测的GPP 正向响应了降水的变化，同时正向响应了温度升高1.5℃且降水变化；正向响应NPP的情景条件是降水的变化。
Abstract:In this study, we used a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC model, that was validated to estimate GPP (Gross Primary Productivity) and NPP (Net Primary Productivity) of Pinus elliottii forest in red soil hilly region and their responses to interannual climate variability during the period of 1993-2004 and climate change scenario in the future. Results showed that the average annual total GPP and NPP were 1 941g C m-2 a-1 and 695 g C m-2 a-1. GPP and NPP showed an increasing trend during the study period. The precipitation was the key factor controlling the GPP and NPP variations. Scenario analysis showed that double CO2 would not benefit for GPP and NPP with less than 1.5% decrease. When CO2 concentration fixed, GPP responded positively to precipitation change only, temperature increase by 1.5℃ while precipitation increase and NPP responded positively to precipitation change only. When CO2 concentration doubled and climate changed, GPP and NPP responded positively to precipitation changed and GPP also responded positively to temperature increased by 1.5℃ while precipitation changed.