作 者 ：张强*,薛惠锋,张明军,刘雪艳
期 刊 ：生态学报 2010年 30卷 16期 页码：4277~4286
Keywords:extension analysis, regional ecological security, early-warning model, Shaanxi Province abbreviate,
摘 要 ：生态安全问题是当前人类社会可持续发展面临的主要问题，预警是生态安全研究的重点。根据生态安全预警多层次、多维度和动态性的要求，利用可拓综合分析方法，建立了区域生态安全的“状态-胁迫-免疫”(State-Danger-Immunity, SDI)动态预警模型。运用该模型对陕西省历史年份(1990—2007年)生态安全进行定量评估，并对规划年份(2010年)生态环境进行动态预警。研究结果表明，陕西省1990年至2007年的生态环境从“不安全”状态到“较不安全”状态再到“较安全”状态，呈逐渐好转的趋势，但生态安全整体水平较低，均处于“安全”水平以下；2010年陕西省生态安全为“蓝色”预警，且具有向“黄色”预警变化的趋势，水资源出现“橙色”预警，是影响陕西生态安全的主要因素。
Abstract:Ecological security is important in human health, natural resources, and socio-economical development. How to develop an early-warning system is the key problem in ecological security research. Ecological security warning needs to establish the early warning indicator system to reflect the ecological status and development trend. First, in the perspective of identifying factors that affect the eco-system security, the “State-Danger-Immune” (SDI) model is used as a concept model of early-warning indicators. Second, the matter-element model is used on the Formal Description of level of security and early warning objects to establish safety standards and related early warning. The integrated multi-index early warning model can be used to indicate the security state of ecosystems. According to multi-level, multi-dimension and dynamic features of regional ecological security early-warning, the matter-element model is established to assess the regional environmental safety. As a case study, the model is employed to quantitatively assess the ecological security situation of Shaanxi Province from 1990 to 2007. The calculation results show that the ecological environment has shifted from “unsafe” to “relatively unsafe” to “relatively safe” states, which demonstrated that the overall status of ecological security in the Province is undergoing increasing improvement, and the basic ecological destruction can be controlled effectively. However, on the holistic level of ecological security, the safety level of the whole Province is still not satisfactory, because all safety states are less than the general requirement of “Safe”. The results are fundamentally consistent with current real situation. The model carries out the early-warning for ecological security in 2010. The results show that the ecological environment state of Shaanxi Province experienced a gradual improving process from “unsafe”, “relatively unsafe” to “relatively safe” from 1990 to 2007, while its overall level is relatively low; all indicators are below the safety standards. The ecological security will take a “Blue” alert and has the trend of turning into “Yellow” alert of Shaanxi Province in 2010, among which the water resource with an “Orange” alert, which is the main affecting factor to ecological security of Shaanxi Province. In addition, conserving water resources, controlling water pollution, advancing resource utility effectiveness, reducing the impacts of human activities on ecosystems, promoting immunity function of ecological security are necessary for systematically developing and toward a higher level of regional ecological safety. The early-warning model of ecological security, established in this study, has the merits of compatibility and flexibility. Therefore, it can be used not only for specific warning analysis on a particular targeting element of ecological security, but also for transforming multiple-level objective assessment into a single-level objective decision-making to better analyze the regional security status.
全 文 ：