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作 者 ：唐业忠,况荣平,赵万源

期 刊 ：生态学报 1991年 11卷 2期 页码：130~134

关键词：苹果绵蚜；苹果绵蚜日光蜂；模拟模型；灵敏度分析；

Keywords:Eriosoma anigerum, Aphelinus mali, simulation model, sen-sitive analysis.,

摘 要 ：本文在生物学特性研究的基础上,组建了苹果绵蚜(Eriosoma lanigerum)及其日光蜂(Aphelinus mali)寄主——天敌作用系统的Boxcar train模型,对苹果绵蚜猖獗期的二种群数量进行了模拟,其结果与果园调查基本吻合。用此模型做系统的灵敏度分析,结果表明系统的内部因子(如蚜蜂的基数比例)和外部因子(温湿度)对系统均有影响。温度升高,二种群数量增加,反之则下降。湿度增加,苹果绵蚜日光蜂种群数量上升,反之则下降。湿度变化对苹果绵蚜无不良影响。比较而言,温度对系统的影响比湿度大得多。减少苹果绵蚜基数比增加日光蜂基数对系统的影响大,据此可从理论上估计生物防治的局限性。

Abstract:A boxcar train model of interactive system of woolly apple aphid,Erio-soma lanigerum (Haus.),and its parasite, Apheiinus mali(Hald.), was developed on the basis of biological research on them and was used to simulate popuation dynamics of this pest and its parasite from March to July. A modelling result was basically consistent with natural population dynamics of them. The sensitive analysis showed that temperature and relative humidity have an effect on the host-parasite system: the population sizes of woo...

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