采用区域气候模式输出的日值和加拿大森林火险天气指数系统,在50 km × 50 km尺度下,分析IPCC SRES A2和B2情景下中国西南地区未来不同时段区域森林火险和森林火险期变化,为科学制定未来林火管理规划提供参考。气候情景数据使用区域气候模式系统(PRECIS)对中国区域1961—2100年SRES A2,B2情景下的气候模拟结果,计算研究区各格点森林火险天气指数(FWI),并利用ANUSPLIN软件把研究结果插值到1 km×1 km水平。结果表明: PRECIS模式对研究区的平均气温和月均降水均有较好的模拟能力,气温和降水空间分布形态及中心区域与观测数值基本一致。A2和B2情景下西南地区火险期(11月至翌年5月)内森林火险天气指数平均分别增加1.66和1.40。A2和B2情景下2041—2050年火险期FWI平均变率分别为1.22倍和1.24倍,表明 A2和B2情景下西南地区的森林火烧面积在2041—2050年可能比基准时段增加22%和24%,并且在火险高的月份潜在的森林火烧面积增加更为明显。与基准时段相比,2种情景下都表现出低火险日数明显减少和极高火险日数显著增加的趋势。A2和B2情景下, 2041—2050年 高、很高和极高火险等级总日数分别增加17和13天。建议根据未来森林火险和火险期变化特点,加强早期预警、火灾监测和可燃物管理等,提高该区域适应气候变化的能力。
Global Climate Change has a rapid and far-reaching impact on fire activities in forests. This paper made use of regional climate models’output and the calculated Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) to analysis the changes on fire danger and fire season in future periods under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios on the scale of 50 km × 50 km. The results would provide a reference for future fire management planning in the study area. China’s regional climate for the period (1961—2100) under SRES A2 and B2 was modeled from a regional climate model system (PRECIS). The results were interpolated to 1 km×1 km scale by using ANUSPLIN software. The results showed that: PRECIS model had a good ability to simulate temperature and precipitation of the study area in baseline period. Spatial distribution of the temperature and precipitation was basically consistent with the observed values. Compared with baseline period, the FWI values in fire season (from November to the next May) for Southeast China will increase an average of 1.66 and 1.40 in 2040s under scenario A2 and B2 respectively. Meanwhile the average FWI ratios would increase by an average of 1.22 and 1.24 times under scenario A2 and B2 respectively,and range 1.1-1.5 times in most areas of the region. The change of FWI ratios suggested that the potential burned areas would increase by 22% and 24% than those in baseline period. Under the two scenarios the fire season would prolong significantly. In 2040s the total days with high,very high and extreme high fire danger rating would increase 17 and 13 days under scenarios A2 and B2,respectively. It is suggested to strengthen early warning,fire monitoring and fuel management in southwest China for preparing for the climate change.
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