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作 者 ：吴敬 洪伟 翁少容 池信佃

期 刊 ：林业科学 1983年 19卷 1期 页码：39-45

关键词：马尾松；

摘 要 ：作者对连江县历年松毛虫发生资料进行总结,归纳成不同虫灾级别和各种引起松毛虫发生的主导因子的级别。根据1960—1976年的虫灾级及因素级编成表,应用数量概率回归估计方法,建立多元回归方程的数量化模型,得出预报计算方法,并在1978、1979、1980三年的生产中进行回报,回报的结果是与实际情况相符,证明此方法可应用于实践。

Abstract:In order to find out the law of the growth and decline of D.puntatus Walk. and develop a mathematical forecast model, the writers collected the 17 years‘ historical material of D. puntatus Walk. And the meteorological factors at Lianjiang County in Fujian Province. Twelve main factors were selected and then graded. The calculation method of probability regression in the theory of quantization was used for developing the mathematical forecast model. With this model for forecasting 100% accuracy can be achieved. The predictions of the degree of harmness of this insect in 1978,1979 and 1980 were successful.

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