以四川盆地稻田保护性耕作制为研究对象，运用目标取向法对其可持续性进行系统评价。将稻田保护性耕作制分为经济、生态、社会3个子系统，进而分为7个指标层和若干个变量层，经过3轮专家咨询，最后筛选确定18个指标（变量层）作为稻田保护性耕作制可持续性评价的指标集，建立可持续评价的指标体系。以Delphi法和AHP（层次分析）法相结合，建立相关判断矩阵，分别计算各指标层和变量层的权重，最后运用模糊数学方法即模糊综合评判方法对四川盆地稻田保护性耕作制进行可持续性评价。作为一种尝试，本研究为优化选择当地最合理的保护性耕作发展模式，为稻田保护性耕作制的推广应用提供了技术评价理论参考。
Environmental protection is of prime importance for the sustainable development of the society. The physical and chemical characters of the soil in the south of China have been destroyed due to the longer application of traditional farming method. Conservation tillage has been widely adopted in the rice grown region in the south of China. This kind of technique can reduce soil moisture evaporation and ground runoff, and increase soil water storage and available nutrients. Conservation farming system (CFS) is a challenge in the south of China because much precipitation always happens and rice is the main crop there. As a cases, in this study, the CFS in paddy field in Sichuan Basin was systematically analyzed by using the Goal-oriented approach. First of all, CFS was divided into three sub-systems （i.e., economy sub-system, ecology sub-system， and society sub-system）. Then, these three sub-systems were divided into seven index layers and several variable layers. After referring to expert’s suggestions three times, 18 indices (variable) were collected as index reservoir of evaluation on the durative for CFS. Related judging matrix was constructed with the combination of two methods, Delphi and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The weight (ω) of each index layer and variable layer was calculated from this matrix. In the end, the evaluation on the durative of CFS in paddy field in Sichuan Basin was made by using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method. Among all the current CFS in Sichuan Basin, the wheat/rice pattern with no-tillage and stalk-mulching at both growth stages showed highest durative and achieved best ecological, economic and social benefits. We try to provide theoretical reference for optimizing and extending local conservation farming pattern. However, as a new method, it should be modified further in future.
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