根据小麦生理生态学理论，建立了冬小麦产量形成及最终产量模拟模型（WYSM），作为小麦生长模型的子模型。模型较为全面地考虑了孕穗期水分、低温霜冻、高温及生长后期干热风对冬小麦粒数的影响，将灌浆期分成3个阶段，引入3个品种参数，考虑每个阶段最大灌浆速率，并利用温度、水分、籽粒体内N/C比等因子进行修正，考虑源库限制，最后采用产量构成因素方法建立小麦最终产量模型。利用北京地区和河南地区不同年份和不同品种的试验资料对模型进行了验证。结果表明，WYSM模型对小麦产量构成因子及最终产量的模拟效果很好，模拟值与实测值吻合度高，粒数、粒重、产量及灌浆过程模拟的相对均方差（NRMSE）为4.2%～10.9%，相对误差（RE）绝对值的平均值为2.9%～6.7%，决定系数R2为0.88～0.99，说明模型不仅具有较强的机理性而且具有较高的预测性和适用性。
A simulation model for yield components and final yield in winter wheat (WYSM) was established based on the physiological and ecological characteristics of yield formation of winter wheat, which is as a submodel of whole wheat growth simulation model. The effects of low temperature, water stress from forming to grain filling stage and high temperature at late growing season on wheat grain number were integrated into the model. The grain filling stage was divided into three sub-stages and the maximum grain-filling rates for each sub-stage were introduced. The effects of temperature, water stress and N/C ratio of grains were considered to simulate actual kernel weight, the source and sink relation was also considered in the model to modify grain-filling rate. Finally the method of yield components was used to establish the final yield prediction model of winter wheat. The field experiment data for different years and different cultivars in Beijing and Henan Province of China were used to validate this model. The results showed that WYSM model well simulated the yield components and final yield of wheat. The grain number, grain weight, yield and grain filling process were predicted with an NRMSE of 4.2%–10.9%, and the average of absolute relative error (RE) of 2.9%–6.7%. The adjusted linear correlation coefficient (R2) between simulated and observed values is 0.88–0.99. The results indicate that the model has not only good mechanism in model building, but good simulation capability and applicability.
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