作 者 ：杨足膺,赵媛*,付伍明
期 刊 ：生态学报 2010年 30卷 24期 页码：6741~6748
Keywords:Jiangsu Province, energy ecological footprint, influencing factor, coefficient elasticity method,
摘 要 ：在核算1985-2006年江苏省能源生态足迹的基础上，采用弹性系数方法，对江苏省能源生态足迹的影响因素进行分析和评价，包括不同影响因素的作用程度高低、不同时期主要及次要影响因素的变动等。这对促进江苏省能源与社会、经济和生态的协调发展，具有重要意义。研究结果显示：不同时期，影响江苏省能源生态足迹的主导因素不同。2003年以前，江苏省分别经历了主导因素变动、耕地因素主导和人口因素主导3个时期；2003年以后，全省第二产业比重反弹，第二产业比重偏大，产业结构不合理，成为目前促进江苏省能源生态足迹提高的主导因素。同时在2003年以后，江苏省城市化水平的迅速提高(2005年已达50%)和全省能源技术效率的下降(单位GDP能耗由0.78反弹至0.89tce/万元)，这些次要因素也推动了江苏省能源生态足迹的提高。
Abstract:At present, there have been relatively serious environmental problems caused by energy consumption in Jiangsu province, which obstructs the socio-economic sustainable development in Jiangsu, so that it is important to evaluate quantitatively the environment situation and environmental capacity for energy consumption. Therefore, at the beginning of this paper, energy ecological footprint is defined according to the definition of Ecological Footprint, which is used to evaluate the regional or global capacity for energy consumption quantitatively. After that, the paper evaluated Jiangsu′s energy ecological footprint from 1985 to 2006, and then analyzed the principal influencing factors of energy ecological footprint for each year with coefficient of elasticity. (1) Upon calculating the energy ecological footprint of Jiangsu with input-output analysis and carbon sequestration method, the paper shows that there was average annual 10% growth of energy ecological footprint in Jiangsu from 1985 to 2006. Meanwhile, the main part of energy ecological footprint was the energy consuming ecological footprint, which contributed 97.5% of the average annual growth of energy ecological footprint. (2)After comparing the analyzing results of some statistical methods, such as multiple correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis, etc, we find that the coefficient elasticity method was more suitable for analyzing the influencing factors of Jiangsu′s energy ecological footprint. However, the forecasting analysis of the influencing factors remains to be further studied. Furthermore, we may try to continue in-deep study of influencing factors analysis of energy ecological footprint with other methods. (3) There is a strong direct relationship between the evolution of energy ecological footprint and socio-economic development pattern of Jiangsu. During 1985-2003, there were three periods with different principal influencing factors, that is, variable-factors-driven period (1985-1995), land-factor-driven period (1996-2000) and population-factor-driven period (2001-2003). After 2003, as a result of rebound of secondary industry development, the proportion of secondary industry has been the primary influencing factor that enlarges energy ecological footprint in Jiangsu. Meanwhile, energy ecological footprint has expanded because of the acceleration of urbanization (50% in 2005) as the secondary factors, and the declining of energy efficiency (energy saving rate per unit GDP has increased from 0.78 to 0.89 tce / ten thousand Yuan) has also resulted in the growth of energy ecological footprint. (4)Jiangsu has just started to coordinate the ecological sustainable development and the rapidly socio-economic development. Though there was a decline in the growth of coal, crude oil and other energy consumption, energy ecological footprint was rapidly increasing during 1985-2006. This was because people neglected other factors (except energy itself) that raise energy ecological footprint, and this was mainly caused by social and economic development, e.g. the increase of proportion of secondary industry, the rapidly reducing of total area under cultivation and so on. (5) Due to the difficulty of data acquisition, the paper only calculated the energy ecological footprint, but failed to measure the energy ecological carrying capacity. Thus we did not figure out the ecological deficit in Jiangsu from 1985 to 2006, which is also to be further studied besides the better way to analyze influencing factors of Jiangsu′s energy ecological footprint.
全 文 ：