作 者 ：郑景明,李俊清,孙启祥,周金星
期 刊 ：生态学报 2008年 28卷 11期 页码：5549~5560
Keywords:introduced woody plant, invasion, ecological prediction, risk assessment,
摘 要 ：外来植物引种导致的入侵已经成为当前生物多样性保育和引种工作面临的一个紧要研究课题。综述了木本植物入侵的生态预测和生态风险评价方面的国内外相关研究进展。首先介绍了目前国内外木本植物引种的概况，对木本植物入侵的生态预测基本原理做了较为详细的总结。目前比较被认可的生态预测途径主要包括编辑入侵植物名录利用入侵历史纪录预测、物种特征作为入侵的预测指标、繁殖体压力作为建群概率的决定性因素、环境匹配作为入侵潜力的预测工具及专家意见等，并对物种特征进行了归类和分析。物种特征指标主要包括物种的繁殖和快速生长性状指标、对入侵地区局部条件和干扰体系的适应性指标、生物地理分布指标等，并指出在生态预测中单独使用这些指标是不严谨的，而应当多途径互相结合验证。同时还简介了WRA等几个应用较为广泛的实用性植物入侵风险评价系统。分析了目前国内外在木本植物入侵的生态预测方面面临的一些困难，包括入侵机理的复杂性导致的预测难度增大和可信性下降，所用数据库标准的不统一和更新的困难等，指出在进行木本植物引种的生态预测和风险评价研究的同时，必须加强相关法律法规建设，重视入侵机理研究，完善相关的数据库。出于实际情况的限制，可以借鉴国际上实用性杂草风险分析和有害生物风险分析的方法，逐步建立我国的入侵风险评价系统，以满足目前对木本植物入侵的预测和风险评价的需求。
Abstract:Invasion by introduced plants is an emerging problem to biodiversity conservation and species introduction. This paper reviewed the theories and advances in ecological prediction and risk analysis of invasion by introduced woody plants. Current status of woody plant introduction both home and abroad were summarized, followed by discussions on fundamental theories of ecological prediction of invasion by introduced plants. Some commonly accepted pathways of invasion prediction were discussed, including compilation of invader checklist by the invasion history in other regions, use of species traits as predictors of invasiveness, propagule pressure as determinants of invasion probability, climate-matching as prediction tools of invasion potential, and conference of specialist′s opinions etc. In trait-based prediction of invasiveness, major predictors could be categorized into three types, including breeding and fast growth attributes, adaptation to local environments and disturbance regimes, and biogeography distribution index. In terms of discussion on the proper use of criteria, the authors think that the abovementioned pathways should be used integrally. Meanwhile, some practical risk assessment systems such as WRA were briefly described. At the end of the paper, difficulties in ecological prediction on introduced woody plants were identified, i.e., theoretical complexity of plant invasion which confuses the prediction and lower its credibility, different standards adopted by checklists and floras in different regions which pose difficulty in interpretation of predicting results and update of the database. The authors advocate establishing related laws and regulations, enforcing invasion mechanism research, and improving database of introduced woody plants. Given practical limitations, methodologies from weed risk assessment and pest risk analysis should be adopted for developing practical risk assessment systems to meet the urgent needs for ecological prediction in China.
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