Abstract:Invasion by introduced plants is an emerging problem to biodiversity conservation and species introduction. This paper reviewed the theories and advances in ecological prediction and risk analysis of invasion by introduced woody plants. Current status of woody plant introduction both home and abroad were summarized, followed by discussions on fundamental theories of ecological prediction of invasion by introduced plants. Some commonly accepted pathways of invasion prediction were discussed, including compilation of invader checklist by the invasion history in other regions, use of species traits as predictors of invasiveness, propagule pressure as determinants of invasion probability, climate-matching as prediction tools of invasion potential, and conference of specialist′s opinions etc. In trait-based prediction of invasiveness, major predictors could be categorized into three types, including breeding and fast growth attributes, adaptation to local environments and disturbance regimes, and biogeography distribution index. In terms of discussion on the proper use of criteria, the authors think that the abovementioned pathways should be used integrally. Meanwhile, some practical risk assessment systems such as WRA were briefly described. At the end of the paper, difficulties in ecological prediction on introduced woody plants were identified, i.e., theoretical complexity of plant invasion which confuses the prediction and lower its credibility, different standards adopted by checklists and floras in different regions which pose difficulty in interpretation of predicting results and update of the database. The authors advocate establishing related laws and regulations, enforcing invasion mechanism research, and improving database of introduced woody plants. Given practical limitations, methodologies from weed risk assessment and pest risk analysis should be adopted for developing practical risk assessment systems to meet the urgent needs for ecological prediction in China.