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期 刊 ：植物保护学报 2008年

关键词：香蕉细菌性枯萎病；GARP；MAXENT；潜在适生区域；

Keywords:moko disease, GARP, MAXENT, potential distribution area,

摘 要 ：青枯菌2号小种引起的香蕉细菌性枯萎病(moko disease)是香蕉生产上最具毁灭性的病害之一。为指导香蕉细菌性枯萎病的预防控制和制定相关的检疫政策,该研究根据EPPO公布的香蕉细菌性枯萎病在全球范围内的分布资料,分别采用GARP和MAXENT两种预测模型对其在中国的潜在适生区域进行分析预测。结果显示,GARP和MAXENT的预测结果基本一致,均表明香蕉细菌性枯萎病菌在中国的潜在适生区域集中分布于东南部的云南、广西、广东、海南、福建、台湾、江西、湖南、贵州、四川、重庆、浙江、湖北等13个省(市、自治区),其中高风险适生区域包括广东、广西、台湾、海南、福建和云南省。

Abstract:Moko disease, caused by race 2 of Ralstonia solanacearum, is a devastating disease of banana, plantain and Heliconia. In order to prevent and manage invasion of R.solanacearum effectively, it is necessary to research the potential geography distribution of this alien species. Based on current geographical distribution of R.solanacearum race 2, both MAXENT and GARP methods were used to predict the potential distribution area of R.solanacearum race 2 in China. The potential distribution areas predicted by GARP and MAXENT are almost identical. The result of two models showed that the potential distribution area of R.solanacearum include Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, Taiwan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Zhejiang and Hubei provinces. The high suitable probability areas include Guangdong, Guangxi, Taiwan, Hainan, Fujian and Yunnan provinces.

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