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作 者 ：刘国荣 王世君

期 刊 ：林业科学 1992年 28卷 3期 页码：220-225

关键词：落叶松落叶病；预测预报；

Keywords:Larch leaf-cast, Forecast,

摘 要 ：我们通过对气象因子与落叶松落叶病发病关系的研究,和对入选的主要气象因子在各月份中作用的分析,将六七月份降水量、平均相对湿度和四五月份平均气温确定为病情测报因子。其当年值预测式为y=b₀+b₁x₁+b₂x₂……+b₍₁₂₎x₍₁₂₎(x₁、x₂……x₍₁₂₎为前1—12年测报因子观测值;b₀、b₁……b₍₁₂₎为相应回归系数);由23年全省历史资料建立的病情指数预测式为y=68.31-1.68x₁-0.5638x₂+0.36x₃(x₁、x₂、x₃分别为气温、湿度、降水预测值);全省发病面积预测式为y=(-0.13325+0.00533x)Sy(式中,x为病情指数预测值;Sy为全省幼龄落叶松人工林面积)。根据各地区发病面积比例系数和各地区轻、中、重发病面积的百分比,可预测各地区发病面积和轻、中、重发病面积。应防治面积为重、中级发病面积与20%轻病级面积之和。

Abstract:This paper deals with the relationship between meteorological factors and larch leaf cast (Mycos-phaerella larici-leptolepis), and analyse the selected meteorological factors of the different monthes. The results showed that the rainfall and the ralative humidity during June and July and the mean air temperature in April and May were worked out as the disease forecasting factors. The current year forecasting formula of y = b₀ + b₁x₁ + b₂x₂ +……b₍₁₂₎x₍₁₂₎(x₁: values of forecasting factor before 1—12 years, b₁: regression coefficient) was established. Based on the accumulated data of disease and weather condition of 23 years, the disease forecasting formula of y = 68.31-1.68x₁-0.5638x₂ + 0.36x₃(x₁: the mean air temperature, x₂: the ralative humidity, x₃: rainfall) was made. The spread area of the disease can be calculated with the equition of y=(-0.13325 + 0.00533x)Sy (x: forecasting disease index, Sy: area of larch plantation in Jilin Province). The disease level and disease area can be determined with the ratio coefficient of a given disease level. Thus the area needed to be controlled was the combination of serious and medial disease areas plus 20 percent of light disease area.

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