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作 者 ：秦 钟,章家恩,骆世明,叶延琼.

期 刊 ：中国生态农业学报 2008年 16卷 4期 页码：1043-1047

关键词：能源消费；CO2；排放系统动力学；STELLA模型；

Keywords:Energy consumption, CO2 emission, System dynamics approach, STELLA model,

摘 要 ：目前我国正处在全面建设小康社会的重要发展阶段。在人口总量增加、经济持续发展、居民生活能源消费不断提高的情况下，对能源供需状况进行科学、合理的预测对保障我国能源供给、促进经济可持续发展和CO₂减排，实现社会可持续发展具有重要意义。本文在研究我国现阶段能源消费和人口、经济发展现状的基础上，运用系统动力学模型预测了我国能源需求和CO₂排放量，提出能源发展和削减CO₂排放量的设想和对策。

Abstract:China is in the process of constructing an all-round, well-off society. Under the current circumstances of growing population, increasing economic development and daily energy consumption, a realistic forecast of energy demand and supplement is of particular importance for guaranteed energy supply, progressive economic development and limited CO_{2 emission for a sustainable development of the society. By analyzing the mode of energy consumption and population and economic development, we predict energy demand and CO2 emission in the new periodical with system dynamics approach, and then advance suggestions and countermeasures for energy development and released CO2 limit.}

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