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作 者 ：谭秀娟,郑钦玉*

期 刊 ：生态学报 2009年 29卷 7期 页码：3559~3568

关键词：水资源；水资源生态足迹；水资源生态承载力；ARIMA模型；

Keywords:water resources, water resources ecological footprint, water resources ecological carrying capacity, ARIMA model,

摘 要 ：生态足迹模型的提出为水资源可持续利用的定量评价提供了新思路。通过构建水资源生态足迹和水资源生态承载力的计算模型，对我国1949~2007年水资源的可持续利用状况作出了客观的评价，并运用ARIMA模型对我国水资源生态足迹变动趋势作出深入的研究。结果表明，1949~2007年，我国人均水资源生态承载力总体上呈下降态势，而人均水资源生态足迹则逐年上升，从而造成人均水资源生态赤字逐渐增大，我国水资源处于一种不安全状态。运用ARIMA（2，1，3）模型的预测结果表明，2008~2012年，我国人均水资源生态足迹将继续呈上升态势，水危机形势将日益严峻。在此基础上，针对我国水资源的可持续利用问题提出了一组政策建议。

Abstract:Ecological footprint model offers a new method for evaluating the sustainable utilization of water resources quantitatively. Based on the calculating models of water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity, this paper made an evaluation on the sustainable utilization of water resources in China from 1949 to 2007 and then used Box\|Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to make a profound analysis on the changing trend of water resources ecological footprint. The result showed that water resources ecological carrying capacity per capita was decreasing, while there was an obvious increase in water resources ecological footprint per capita in China between 1949 and 2007. When the water resources ecological footprint surpassed ecological carrying capacity gradually, water resources ecological deficit emerged and increased annually, which indicated that the use of water resources in China was in an unsafe state. The ARIMA model was applied to predict the water resources ecological footprint per capita in China from 2008 to 2012, the results showed water resources ecological footprint per capita would keep on increasing, and thus the state of water crisis would be increasingly serious. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the sustainable utilization of water resources accordingly.

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