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期 刊 ：植物保护学报 1995年

关键词：小麦；叶锈病；预测模型；中期预测；

Keywords:leaf rust of wheat forecast model,

摘 要 ：根据河北省保定市和辛集市两地近十年对小麦叶锈病的调查资料，建立了一个小麦叶锈病中期预测模型。Ｙ＝－２０．５９＋９．１２Ｘ１＋０．８５Ｘ２＋１．４１Ｘ３，Ｘ１为品种的抗性参数，Ｘ２为４月上中旬的总降雨量，Ｘ３为４月上中旬的总降雨次数，Ｙ为灌浆中期叶锈病的病情指数。通过对历史资料进行检验，预测准确率为８０％。本模型适合于河北省中南部麦区对叶锈病发生程度的预测。

Abstract:Based on the investigation data from both Baoding and Xinji City during the recent ten years, a mid-term forecast model for leaf rust of wheat was established. It is: Y=-20. 59 9.12X1 0. 85X2 1. 41X3 in which X1 means the index of cultivar rust

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