---

作 者 ：陈成忠,林振山

期 刊 ：生态学报 2008年 28卷 1期 页码：338~344

关键词：生态足迹；小波变换；多时间尺度；预测；

Keywords:ecological footprint (EF), wavelet transform, multiple time scales, prediction,

摘 要 ：以小波变换技术为基础，对中国1961~2005年人均生态足迹波动的突变时间及影响因素进行了多时间尺度分析。研究结果表明：（1）44a来，中国人均生态足迹波动具有明显的3、7a和23a的特征时间尺度和相应的周期性振荡特征，其中23a周期尤为显著；(2）比较3种尺度下的突变点发现，1966年、1979年、1988年、1996年、2000年和2004年为共同的突变点，说明这5a突变强烈，反映了波动的主要特征；(3）对主要突变点的成因分析发现，中国人均生态足迹的波动主要由于政策因素和经济因素驱动所致，科技因素和自然因素也有影响；(4）综合3、7a和23a 3个时间尺度上小波系数的演变趋势发现，中国人均生态足迹在未来几年会有所下降，可持续发展形势会有所好转。

Abstract:The wavelet analysis was used to analyze the characteristics of cultivated per capita ecological footprint change and the driving forces of this change from 1961 to 2005 in China. The results showed: (1) Chinas per capita ecological footprint had 3a , 7a and 23a characteristic time scales and corresponding changes from the figures of the wavelet coefficients, and the 23a period is especially prominent; (2) The turning points of the changes were presented in the years of 1966, 1979, 1988, 1996, 2000 and 2004; (3) It was founded that government policies, national economic development, technology, and natural disasters are the main factors, which led to the cultivated Chinas per capita ecological footprint fluctuation; (4) Whether at the bigger scale or at the smaller scale, Chinas per capita ecological footprint seems to be decreasing in the recent years from the analysis of the figures of the wavelet coefficients. Therefore, the sustainable development of China should be better in future.

---