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作 者 ：石娟,骆有庆*,武海卫,Kari Helivaara,梁丽壮

期 刊 ：生态学报 2008年 28卷 7期 页码：3193~3204

关键词：松材线虫(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus)；干扰；生长模型；灰色预测；灰色-马尔可夫组合模型；

Keywords:pine wood nematode (PWN)(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), disturbance, growth model, grey forecast, model combination of grey-Markov,

摘 要 ：松材线虫(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus)是一种松树上发生严重的有害生物,它不仅改变了生态系统的结构和功能,而且改变了系统内生物的原有特性和地理分布。 松材线虫及其引起的松树萎蔫病已对中国马尾松林(Pinus massoniana)的树木成长产生了巨大影响。基于此,使用“每木调查法”和“样方法”, 对松材线虫入侵后的马尾松林内松树的各项生长指标因子进行了调查分析,其结果表明: 自松材线虫1996年入侵所调查地区的松林后，对于受害松树不管是伐倒木(被伐倒)还是倒木(自然倒地)，其对周围马尾松胸径生长的影响是显著的，而对树高生长的影响不显著。最后建立了一系列的灰色和灰色-马尔可夫链数学模型,其预测结果精度高,可用于今后受害和未受害区马尾松林分因子的生长预测。

Abstract:Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Pine wood nematode, PWN) is a serious pest of pines that changes the original biological and geographical distribution as well as the structure and function of the natural ecosystems. The nematode and the associated pine wilt disease have a great impact on the stand growth of Masson pine forests in China. The growth rule of individual forest factors after the PWN invasion was analyzed using of “the technique of censusing every individual” and “quadrat method”. The results showed that the invasion of PWN in 1996 had a significant impact on the diameter growth of the pines, but PWN only seldom affected the height growth of the pines. Based on this, the paper also established the grey forecast and grey-Markov combination models of the Masson pine′s growth attacked by PWN. This series of models had a high simulation accuracy and could be applied to the prediction for stand description factors in Masson pine forest, no matter whether it was attacked by PWN or not.

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