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作 者 ：杨莉,刘宁,戴明忠,陆根法*

期 刊 ：生态学报 2008年 28卷 11期 页码：5610~5618

关键词：人口环境消费；生态足迹；环境压力；生态赤字；江阴市；

Keywords:environmental-consumption of population (EcP), ecological footprints, eco-environmental pressure, ecological deficit, Jiangyin City,

摘 要 ：消费问题是区域生态环境压力增大和生态环境问题产生的根本原因。提出人口环境消费的概念和理论模型，并在生态足迹理论和方法的支撑下分别计算江苏省江阴市1997~2004年城镇居民和农村居民生活消费的环境压力；采用SPSS14.0软件，分析城镇和农村居民这两类人群人均环境消费的变化规律及其影响因素，并通过建立多元线性回归预测模型，估算在城镇化快速发展的情况下江阴市人口环境消费期望值。研究表明：江阴市城镇居民人均环境消费从1997年的1395 hm2上升到2004年的1960 hm2，年均递增0.081 hm2；农村居民则从1997年的1.345 hm2上升到2004年的1.465 hm2，年均递增0.017 hm2。城乡居民人均环境消费与人均可支配收入、人均受教育年限、恩格尔系数、人均地区生产总值等社会经济指标呈显著线性相关。预计到2010年城乡居民人均环境消费将分别达到2.258 hm2和1.919 hm2，到2020年将分别达到2.807 hm2和2.303 hm2；2010年和2020年区域生态赤字将比2004年分别增长55％和107％，给区域生态环境造成巨大压力。为有效缓解区域环境压力，论文提出合理控制区域人口规模和城镇化发展速度，大力发展生态产业，培养可持续消费观念，引导绿色、健康和环境友好型的消费模式等对策措施。

Abstract:One cause of the increasingly serious environment problem in China is residents’ improving living consumption, which not only brings waste water, garbage and other environmental negative effects directly, but also is the ultimate causation of eco-environmental pressure as the one main part and the fundamental drive of social reproduction. The paper defined the concept of Environmental-consumption of Population (EcP), theoretically reasoned what factors may impact the EcP based on the theory of ecological footprint, and tested the multiple linear regression model using the panel data from 1997 to 2004 for the Jiangyin City, Jiangsu Province. Moreover, EcP per capita was calculated for urban and rural residents separately. Then the modeling results were extrapolated to year 2010 and 2020 for the urban and rural residents respectively. The software, SPSS 14.0 was used for the analysis. The study found, the urban residents′ per capita EcP rose from 1.395hm2 in 1997 to 1.960hm2 in 2004 with an annual increase of 0.081 hm2, comparing with 1.345 hm2 in 1997 and 1.465 hm2 in 2004 with an annual increase of 0.017 hm2 for rural residents. Statistically significant effects of the following variables, per capita disposable income, engle coefficient, years of schooling, per capita GDP were found on the urban & rural residents′ EcPs. By year 2010, the expected per capita EcP for urban and rural residents were 2.258 hm2 and 1.919 hm2 respectively while the numbers would increase to 2.807 hm2 and 2.303 hm2 by 2020, which would bring great stress on the environment and result in large ecological deficit. This paper also revealed that the growing consumption and rural to urban migration exerted stress on the regional eco-system. Without sufficient infrastructure for waste disposal and treatment to accommodate the adaptation to an urban life style, the rapidly increasing urban population and their consumption have become incompatible with sustainable development goals. Thus, we must take measures to control the progress of urbanization and to strive for a urbanization and life style that are characterized by environmentally friendly living and consumption.

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