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作 者 ：张衍广,林振山,李茂玲,梁仁君

期 刊 ：生态学报 2008年 28卷 10期 页码：5027~5032

关键词：生态足迹；生态承载力；EMD；动力学预测；

Keywords:ecological footprint, ecological capacity, EMD, dynamics prediction,

摘 要 ：利用经验模态分解（EMD）方法对1961年以来中国生态足迹与生态承载力的变化波动的周期进行了分解，并在此基础上运用动力学建模方法，建立预测模型，对中国未来20a的生态足迹与生态承载力进行数值模拟和预测。研究结果表明：随着生态足迹的增大和生态承载力的减小，中国未来20a的生态赤字越来越大，发展处于不可持续状态。政府应从提高生态承载力和减小生态足迹消耗着手来实现可持续发展。

Abstract:In this paper, the author analyzed ecological footprint and ecological capacity from the year 1961-2003 of China with the method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), and made a dynamic model, predicting the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of China in the next 20 years. The results indicated that with ecological footprint bigger and ecological capacity less, ecological deficit will become bigger in the future. China will in an unsustainable state in ecological aspects. The government is responsible to improve ecological capacity and increase ecological footprint to make it a sustainable development.

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