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作 者 ：杨昕,王明星,黄耀

期 刊 ：生态学报 2002年 22卷 6期 页码：817~821

关键词：降水；温度；未来气候；碳通量；GCM；模型；

Keywords:model, carbon flux, future climate, precipitation, temperature,

摘 要 ：利用 GCM模式模拟的未来气候状况 ,结合一个简单计算碳通量的模型 ,对未来地 -气间碳交换通量与温度和降水的关系做初步模拟分析。结果显示 ,在未来气候变暖情况下 ,要保持陆地生态系统不成为大气碳源 ,降水量需要有很大的增加幅度 (至少要比 GCM模式模拟的结果要高 )。在不考虑二氧化碳及氮素的“施肥效应”前提下 ,得出要使陆地生态系统的碳通量为零 ,全球平均温度每增加 1℃ ,降水量需要增加 7% (约 5 4 mm)。

Abstract:Based on a simple soil carbon model and GCM output for future climate, we conducted several experiments in order to study net carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere. The climate situation between 1901 and 2029 was simulated by NCAR CCM model. The simulated land temperature in 2029 will be 17.0℃ which is about 3.8℃ higher than the mean value during 1920~1949, but the simulated precipitation has slight increase. Thus, the GCM predicts a relation with about 5 mm increase in precip...

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